What.The.Ferrari

The Formula One transfer market or ‘silly season’ as coined by fans, is entering its most exciting and lucrative period with 14 out of the 20 current drivers' contracts up for renewal at the end of the 2024 season. Now, people were expecting some fireworks but no one was expecting this. 

01/02/2024 - BREAKING NEWS: Lewis Hamilton to drive for Ferrari from 2025. 

A rumour burst onto the scene shocking everyone. A day centred on the premier league's deadline day, was overshadowed by the biggest transfer in recent sporting history, maybe even ever. Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes make up the most successful partnership in Formula One's history with Hamilton winning 6 of his 7 world titles with the Brackley-based team, meaning the end of this partnership is monumental. 

In his leaving statement, Hamilton highlighted the fulfilment of his childhood dream which was to drive for Ferrari, a sentiment which is echoed by most in motorsport. Working for Ferrari is seen as a career peak, as the team is shrouded in rich heritage and prestige. So, although unexpected it was unlikely that if the opportunity ever did arise Hamilton would not take it, albeit at the expense of Carlos Sainz.

The Formula One driver's market is often one of sliding pieces, and this move will likely be the first domino in an explosive trail, so I want to explore the effects this move might have, looking at Ferrari, Mercedes and the wider ramifications on the drive market.

Firstly, at FERRARI

The current driver dynamic at Ferrari was widely regarded as one of the strongest pairings on the grid, both Sainz and Leclerc are strong drivers on a largely equal footing, as well as being wildly popular and marketable drivers. Although there is no question about Hamilton’s popularity, the currently harmonious dynamic in Ferrari is likely to shift dramatically upon the 7x driver champion's arrival.

Both Leclerc and Hamilton carry big aspirations, Leclerc of a 1st world title and Hamilton of an 8th, and if hamiltons move indicates anything of the strength of Ferrari's new challenger, we will likely be in for a feisty battle between teammates, with no 1st driver established. Despite the driver's friendship, it was evident how a championship battle affected the relationship between Hamilton and Rosberg, so it will be interesting to see how the relationship plays out, and how Ferrari might deal with rising tensions in the team. 

Although who knows, because it is a common occurrence for Ferrari hopes to rise so high only to fall so dramatically, but paired with the drama of hamiltons move maybe there is hope for the Tifosi on the horizon (I pray)

Now at MERCEDES

It's no secret that this move was a shock to Mercedes, evident in the emergency team meeting and the long wait for confirmation of the move. Team Principal Toto Wolff, later said that he only found out about the move a day before the media, which has left a shocking and deep hole at the centre of the team.

As mentioned Hamilton has seen most of his success with this team, a constant through 3 driver pairings, multiple cars and many ups and downs. Arguably, Hamilton is irreplaceable to the team, but alas a replacement must be found. So, Who could it be?  ,

There are 4 main contenders for this seat, all offering different attributes;

Fernando Alonso - Aston Martin 

The 2x world champion is known for making bold career moves so it's not out of the question for him to depart with Aston Martin who gave him multiple podiums in the 2023 season. A move to Mercedes could finally give him an opportunity to achieve an elusive 3rd WDC, along with the experience and talent he would bring likely letting him take up the mantle as lead driver in the team. 

Personally, Alonso is the most convincing candidate to fill Hamilton's vacancy, due to his wealth of experience and consistent high level, with the ability to extract the most out of any car he gets into. Alonso is the only current driver who is in any way comparable to the weight of Hamilton's absence, and in turn, I think this move makes the most sense for both Alsonso and Mercedes.  

Alex Albon - Williams

Alex Albon is an enticing prospect to Mercedes, currently at Williams, a customer team to Mercedes. This is an establishing link which Albon can exploit. Despite having a tough time in the Red Bull family Albon has successfully bounced back helping to develop and rebuild Williams towards the level of prestige they used to hold. Albon is fully established as the lead driver at Williams, and the future of the team looks bright under the purposeful direction of the new team principal James Vowles. 

I can understand Mercedes’ interest in Alex Albon, and the partnership between him and Russel would be strong and talented. But, from Albon's perspective joining Mercedes may be a stronger team, but it's unlikely he will be taking the lead spot over Russel. I think sticking at Williams will put him in a more advantageous position to fight for podiums and an established first driver. Especially with regulation changes on the way, I think building a lasting legacy at Williams is a more attractive prospect. 

Carlos Sainz - Ferrari 

A straight swap is a potential option, due to Sainz’s impressive and building form over the past few seasons, despite this, there isn't an established link between the two parties. It also seems unlikely with Sainz’s link to Audi. 

I don't see this being a beneficial move for either party. On the part of Sainz, similar to Albon there is no basis for him to take up a leading role and will likely fall into supporting Russel whom Toto supports as Mercedes's future. Similarly, for Mercedes, it's likely Sianz will simply be a seatholder until he goes to Audi. For Mercedes, it seems to make more sense to invest in a more long-term and committed option. Despite on face value, the swap making sense I think in the bigger this is a rather unlikely move. 

Kimi Antonelli - Prema F2

Kimi is kind of the ‘new kid on the block’ after excelling in FRECA, the Mercedes junior driver has been bumped up to Formula 2 for the 2024 season. With an established link to the team and being widely regarded as one of the most exciting prospects in motorsport, it's no surprise Antonelli's name has been mentioned regarding the Mercedes vacancy. 

I think with Antonelli it's not a case of if, but when, with him likely reaching the top of Formula One at some point. I think the question is, is now the right time? We saw cases such as Albon and Gasly who moved at the wrong time and how negatively it impacted their careers, or comparatively how well it worked out for Verstappen. I think what works in Antonelli's favour is the ethos of Mercedes, where it's likely that there will be patience in his first season even if he struggles compared to other examples in the paddock. What is most crucial though is his performance in Formula 2 this year. Although I said Alonso is the most convincing for me I believe that if Antionelli excels in Formula 2 this year in what is an incredibly competitive season, his chance at the Mercedes becomes ever more realistic. 

So, as with most things, I think the Mercedes seat is dependent on a lot of moving parts. As it stands I feel that Fernando Alonso is the most positive appointment with the move being beneficial for both driver and team. However, depending on how the Aston Martin delivers this season could be a large factor. What I do think is important though, is that Mercedes act fast(ish) with such a volatile drivers market this season as 14 drivers are out of contract it's likely that talent will be snatched and signed up, so it's important Mercedes play their cards right. Were not going to see a repeat of  Russel where they were able to wait until the last minute to make a decision. I know for sure that I can't WAIT to see how this plays out !!

As per, this is my opinion, feel free to discuss and don't forget to follow the gram @loudandclearblogs ;) 

Ttyl with some new content 

- B x